Confidence and predictions

Epistemic arrogance describes "the difference between what people think they know and what they actually know." Listen to this and related issues in The Scandal Of Prediction, a talk by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness. He is an applied statistician, essayist, and mathematical trader. He is interested in the epistemology of randomness and the multidisciplinary problems of uncertainty and knowledge, particularly in the large-impact, hard-to-predict rare events ("Black Swans").